First things first, we are looking out into Friday – data will change over time before we get there. Take this post with an open mind.
The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms mainly south of I-40 with a Marginal (1/5) Risk for the rest of the area.
A possible QLCS system with (on recent model guidance) a messy setup is expected to move in from the west Friday afternoon. CAPE index is predicted to be around 1,000-2,000 J/Kg 18z across the plateau and valley areas. Area soundings show strong winds aloft with a supporting directional factor with little to no CAP. It is possible for storms to develop in front of this line as there will be a warm and humid airmass over the area with dewpoints in the upper-50s / lower/mid-60s by 18z. It does appear that *maybe* temperatures will struggle to climb into the 80s due to cloud cover over the area Friday afternoon.
Overall, this is a very brief summary as I still have a lot of questions about the forecast and trend. A more detailed look will be published tomorrow night.