This is our final large update as regular smaller updates will start around 12PM Friday.
Severe storms are expected across much of Eastern TN into Western NC Friday afternoon. Instability will range from 1,000-2,500 J/Kg area-wide around 17z then slowly dipping to around 700-2,000 J/Kg by 21z. Shear rates of 30-50 kt will be settled across area-wide around 19z with the highest numbers being north of I-40 then moving into Western VA by 21z. Energy Helicity Index (EHI) will possibly hit near 3.0 indicating an almost 100% confirmation of storm development in lower East TN by 17z (2 PM) the strength of the storms will be determined once they start to develop.
This is a somewhat concerning sounding taken around Morristown for 19z. Significant Tornado Parameter is showing around 2.5 which is on the low to medium end of the scale but is still elevated for our area.
The surface forecast indicates dewpoints to be in the upper-50s / mid-60s across western NC and upper East TN with near 70s south of Knoxville with temperatures in the 60s and 70s by 17z.
NOTE: Here comes the good ole annoying a** “if” factor. Ready? We have to question IF we can gain the forecasted instability after the morning showers. Also, the SPC might up the risk level to Enhanced for some parts of the area. We’ll provide another update around 3 AM ET.
Deeper looks
Any questions, comments, or concerns can be directly messaged to @greenewx_TN anytime! Remember to ALWAYS keep up with local officials for the latest information and keep GreeneWX as a secondary source (we’d love to be the first but this is a one-man show).
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