Model Runs suggest higher CAPE and stronger shear than previously forecasted.
On the latest HRRR, NAM, and GFS forecast model runs, they now suggest higher CAPE and instability for storms to develop across the whole region tomorrow. Previously forecasted CAPE numbers of 500-1,500 J/Kg now goes to 1,200-2,300 J/Kg area-wide. Along with the CAPE increase, soundings are starting to show stronger shear in lower East TN than previously forecasted.
Upper East TN isn’t much different, only with a slight decrease in CAPE but that won’t lower the severe threat.
The SPC also notes a possible Enhanced Risk increase by morning for parts of the area.
With all said, the tornado threat is jumping into the low-medium category. While I trust my knowledge in weather and meteorology, I don’t have a fancy college degree. You should monitor the NWS for the latest information and use GreeneWX as a secondary source.
A full update will be published around 10 PM.