Strong to severe storms are expected Friday morning through evening hours.
Showers and storms in the morning could be strong but subsevere.
A low pressure system will be moving through Kentucky heading Northeast through Friday. The environment will be favorable of cell development in the afternoon with destabilization causing a surface CAPE to reach the 700-2,000 J/Kg rang by 16z. Cells are expected to form by the afternoon before a possible line develops from our west and moves east according to the HRRR and NAM models by evening time. Updraft Helicity of 30-50 m2 shows support for updrafts that can produce small to somewhat large hail with the strongest more organized storms in the afternoon (supercells). Something that has really grabbed our attention is the shearing winds aloft in the lower parts of East TN which could be favorable for some storms to possibly rotate, causing a slightly elevated tornado risk south of Knoxville down towards Chattanooga. While it’s possible to see a rotating storm, the risk is still low but should be monitored.
Now, will everyone see a severe storm? Probably not. While the risk isn’t on the “low end” it’s also not on the “high end”. As always GreeneWX will be here providing updates all day Friday.
We plan to release another update later tonight.