Severe storms are possible Sunday due to a Canadian surface low moving southward through the day. A Marginal Risk (1/5) has been issued for most of our East TN & SW VA counties.

First things first: will everyone see a severe storm? Put simply… no.

The environment will be supportive for storms to develop and take off with the potential of large hail. The CAPE index shows 2,000-3,500 J/Kg over the area by 2 PM ET. Yikes. Now that might sound bad but the LCL levels aren’t that impressive with readings in the 700-900 range which shows the lapse rates aren’t going to be explosive. No CAP looks to be in place but cooler air aloft still might affect a storm’s ability to take off. On top of that, 6-15 km has an Inf. Temp of -0.1/-1.1 which brings that hail threat with the better updrafts but not so much a massive wind threat. We will not have support for rotating storms which brings our tornado threat near zero.

Overall early morning convection with a broken line caused by a front and surface low looks to be the main concern for wind, but instability will be limited. Later on in the day our typical summertime storms will ignite causing that hail threat to increase. The HRRR 48-Hour, NAM, and GFS seem to favor western NC for the greatest storm action, so we might see a risk posted on Day 3 later on tonight.

As always we’ll keep you updated on our Twitter and will post a special update if needed. This isn’t going to be a “severe event” for the books. It’s just that time of year.