First things first, we try to keep it family-friendly around here.
Anyways, morning convection Wednesday has the potential to strengthen as they move into a more destabilized atmosphere throughout the day. Mid-day CAPE values of ~500-800 J/Kg with higher amounts of ~1,000 J/Kg. While that’s relatively low but can still support development, they can also be supported by convectively enhanced vorticity as well as moist advection. Our support will actually increase into the evening hours, BUT, there should be a CAP in place of around ~200 which is just a slap in the face to any thunderstorm. Should one develop, severe hail up to 1″+ and damaging winds look to be the main concern.
I kept this update short because I do not have much confidence in this forecast due to the overload of uncertainty and a somewhat “unprimed” atmosphere. There will be another update posted tomorrow (5/17/22) on this.
Before anyone freaks out, there is no way in hell we are going to see a tornado. We lack everything besides the winds aloft. Again, NO NADER