If you like severe weather, be prepared for a letdown.
The SPC is still holding onto the Marginal (1/5) for severe weather across NETN and SWVA. The latest model runs of the NAM show a supportive atmosphere with ~1000 J/Kg of CAPE with supporting winds with height – but with a weak CAP in place at 21z. On the other hand, the HRRR model shows little to no convection around the area with a weak CAPE of 100-300 J/Kg and a CAP of nearly ~-300.
In all honesty, I’m stumped. So here is what the SPC has to say:
...Mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of the lower OH Valley, in association with the eastward-moving shortwave trough. Diurnal destabilization may support some strengthening of morning convection as it moves eastward, and also redevelopment in the wake of the early-day storms along a weak surface boundary. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, and the strongest storms will pose a threat of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of early-day convection and the coverage of redevelopment in its wake precludes higher severe probabilities at this time.