The SPC has upgraded most of the area to a Slight (2/5) Risk for severe weather tomorrow, including large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado possible.
Starting off tomorrow, we will see shower development (or leftovers) move in from Kentucky, but we will be pretty capped at that time with slight instability, so it should remain just rain. Later on in the day by 1 PM, the short-range models suggest that we gain a CAPE of 2,500-3,000 J/Kg with an updraft potential of 70-80 m2. Area soundings from the HRRR show slightly shearing winds aloft which brings a very low (but non-zero) chance of an isolated tornado; seemingly targeted generally north-west of I-81. LCLs will be in the 1,300-1,500 range supporting decent lapse rates for development.
Moving on towards later in the evening, models suggest we lose some of the CAPE but remain strong across the area; sitting in the 2,500-3,000 J/kg range. We do gain a very weak CAP but shouldn’t really help much in regards to cell growth. LCLs rise along with shearing winds aloft.
By late evening into night, we become strongly capped along East TN and SouthWest VA which should slow active cell development.
We do (as always) have an IF factor: Will the clouds and rain from morning storms move out fast enough in NETN and SWVA? I think the answer to that is yes.
Overall, our hail risk seems to be the worst factor along with damaging winds and isolated tornado potential.
