All of the area remains under a Marginal (1/5) risk for stronger storms later on Thursday with the possibility of damaging winds.
Short-range forecast models seem to be in decent agreement, showing convection taking place around noon Thursday across portions of ETN, taking tracks east towards the TN/NC border where more isolated convection can take place. Somewhat moderate CAPE values will be in place for much of the noon/evening hours, coming in at 1,000-2,000 J/Kg across much of the area by 3 PM. Though that is supportive, shear aloft will not be “hugely” supportive of the organized development of these cells that fire. It looks like the greatest severe chances will be along the boundary later in the evening by 6-9 PM.
While we take pride in our forecast, GWX should never replace the official forecast from the NWS and/or official meteorologists that have the diploma to say their meteorologist.