Forecast models remain somewhat inconsistent with the idea that parts of the area, specifically the plateau and Tri-Cities, will receive some accumulation as a cutoff low starts approaching early Friday morning into Saturday.


The NAM

The NAM model has shifted to a more broken shower approach, which is different than recent runs from yesterday where it showed a somewhat consistent snowfall through the day Saturday. So far, it has kept its promise on parts of the plateau receiving 1-2″ while the lower elevation of the central valley receives a dusting – holding mainly to cars and grassy areas. It has *slightly* upped the snowfall totals for the Tri-Cities, bringing in a possible dusting to 1″ area-wide. An isolated 2″ can’t be ruled out with any heavy shower action Friday night into Saturday.


The HRRR

Contradiction to the NAM model, the HRRR has much of the area and Central Valley receiving nothing but a snow shower or two through Friday – bringing next to no notable snow accumulation. However, it is consistent with that NAM that parts of that plateau could receive 1-2″ across the higher elevations. For the Tri-Cities, it does hold onto that possible dusting to half an inch, but overall it’s much more concentrated on the mountains of the KY/VA border.


Summary

Models are not consistent and haven’t been. Systems like this are tricky to forecast and like to swing back and forth regarding snowfall totals. This is going to be a “Now Cast” situation starting in the early morning. Temperatures will be right at the freezing mark, so it’s hard to say if this starts as pure snow or if it starts with rain.