Category: Outlook

Dangerous Heatwave Expected Mon-Fri

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Highs Monday though the greater half of the week will reach the low/mid-90s with some hitting upper-90s and possibly 100. The latest run of the GFS shows temperatures hitting low/mid-90s Monday with heat indices reaching the upper-90s/lower-100s. Zooming into Tuesday, the high for Knoxville could reach 100-102 degrees… that’s the air temperature, not the heat indices. Heat indices for Tuesday could reach 100-110.

Lows will be “cooler” in the mid/upper-70s near 80 for some.

GFS Temp Tuesday @ 5PM

The mountains and higher elevations will not be protected from the heat. Highs Tuesday above 3,500 FT could reach low/upper-80s – while this is lower than the valley, some don’t have air conditioning. Hiking should be held to the early morning/late evening – though lows will only be ~5-15 degrees cooler.

GFS Loop
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Severe weather expected Friday

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Strong to severe storms are expected Friday morning through evening hours.

Showers and storms in the morning could be strong but subsevere.

A low pressure system will be moving through Kentucky heading Northeast through Friday. The environment will be favorable of cell development in the afternoon with destabilization causing a surface CAPE to reach the 700-2,000 J/Kg rang by 16z. Cells are expected to form by the afternoon before a possible line develops from our west and moves east according to the HRRR and NAM models by evening time. Updraft Helicity of 30-50 m2 shows support for updrafts that can produce small to somewhat large hail with the strongest more organized storms in the afternoon (supercells). Something that has really grabbed our attention is the shearing winds aloft in the lower parts of East TN which could be favorable for some storms to possibly rotate, causing a slightly elevated tornado risk south of Knoxville down towards Chattanooga. While it’s possible to see a rotating storm, the risk is still low but should be monitored.

Now, will everyone see a severe storm? Probably not. While the risk isn’t on the “low end” it’s also not on the “high end”. As always GreeneWX will be here providing updates all day Friday.

We plan to release another update later tonight.

Lower East TN
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Regional Cooldown Mid-week

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Cooler air will be moving back into the area later this week, knocking the temperatures back down to the seasonal average as we hit the end of April.

The forecast and models agree on a front moving through mid-day Tuesday with temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler later in the day after it moves through – bringing the 60s back for Wednesday. A Few T-Storms are possible in the area Tuesday, but overall this will be a rainmaker.

The WPC 6-10 Day Outlook is still suggesting the possibility of below-average temperatures for the area as we move into May.

WPC 6-10 Day Outlook.
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