The SPC has issued a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow; Wednesday, June 8th.
Storms are expected to develop relatively early according to the latest short-range model trends. Generally, around 10 AM across parts of the plateau and south of I-40. Strong deep layer flow will spread across the area with a mid-level shortwave trough approaching; which coincided with the daytime heating and overall supportive environment and could lead to several strong storms with some of those becoming severe later in the day. The NAM and HRRR show development kicking off around 10 AM near Knoxville/Plateau with an environment already charged to 1,000+ J/Kg of CAPE and LCLs of 120-140. A weak CAP does look to be in place, which could hinder the development; by keeping them as showers.
Looking later in the day, by 2 PM, models show cells exploding across the area with CAPE values over 3,000 J/Kg and no CAP in place. LCLs will be in the 500-600 range with decent shearing winds aloft, which could make some of these storms produce large hail and gusty winds for a long track before falling apart.
The atmosphere will not be supportive for tornado development – though an isolated supercell is possible, which could rotate as it moves through.
All in all, the threat of large hail and damaging winds definitely exists Wednesday as ingredients will be nearly perfect – mainly west of I-75 and south of I-40.